There are many terrible things
Johnny Pesky Jersey about a 17-game season, mostly trying to remember what teams' final records will be (9-8, you disgust me). One nice thing? We have an actual halfway point! Well, not really but you can at least divide 18 weeks in half and everyone has played nine games or more at this point.Please don't check my math. Instead, focus on the fact we're halfway through a full, fairly normal season and you can't definitely say if there's a single good team in the league. The might be great, but they lost 9-6 to the . The are rolling, but they lost to the frigging . Tampa Bay is the defending champ, and it just lost to WFT's league-worst defense.Find a good team and I'll find you a flaw. This is about to be an epic run to close out the season with a bunch of weird stuff happening and the promise of some fireworks in the playoffs. Let's get hot with the picks.Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ETTV:Fox/NFL Network|Stream:fuboTV ( ) Latest Odds: Atlanta Falcons +7 The Patriots are a suspiciously large road favorite here given what we've seen out of "Thursday Night Football" the last few weeks. The home team has covered four of the last five weeks on "TNF," the lone exception being the lobbing a 40-burger on the haple s Jets. Prime-time games have been friendly to home teams lately as well. I just can't ignore the obvious mismatches here. The Patriots pa s defense is rounding into shape and has been locking teams down while wrecks havoc up front and piles up sacks. The Pats are running the ball really well and cleared concu sion protocol. Maybe Dean Pees dials up pre sure to slow down the run or stacks the box? It wouldn't surprise me and it probably wouldn't surprise Josh McDaniels either. We might see an aggre sive early before the Pats lean into the run game, similar to what they did against the . I have zero interest in betting against the Pats over the next few weeks. The Pick:Patriots 28, Falcons 3Props, Best Bets: anytime TD +210, Pats -7Sunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ ( ) Latest Odds: Chicago Bears +1 My initial lean on this game was the Ravens, but sometimes you see two big favorites on the road in the first two games and you get a little nervous. Our excellent CBS Sports research team -- shouts to Ben Bradley, Jon Fisher, Sean Ahearn, Ryan Satsky and the whole crew, because they crush it behind the scenes -- sold me on staying with the Ravens. With an a sist to the folks at Tru Media: the Ravens and Bears are both bad at third-down conversions on offense (29th and 28th, respectively). But the Ravens are much better on defense at stopping the same conversions, second in the
Babe Ruth Jersey NFL (32%) versus the Bears at 14th (40%). Additionally, Baltimore is an elite red-zone team on offense (70% of the time it scores a touchdown) and defense (44% allowing one), while Chicago is below average in red-zone conversions (54%). Unle s the Bears decide to change their defensive tendencies -- they rank second-lowest in the NFL in terms of blitzing -- Lamar should cook here. He has three TDs and three picks against the blitz, an 11-to-5 ratio when defenses don't send pre sure, and his yards per attempt spikes 2.6 when he has time.The Pick:Ravens 27, Bears 17Props, Best Bets: anytime TDSunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ ( ) Latest Odds: Tenne see Titans -10 We were told the offense wouldn't change without , but you would need to be born the day Todd Downing said it for that to be the first lie of your life. Before Henry went down, 32% of 's throws were going 10+ yards down the field. That number is now at 24%. The Titans have also seen a 12% spike of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage since the Big Dog suffered his foot injury. is the best of their committee, but it's reasonable to wonder if the Titans will commit to him, even with likely down
Dustin Pedroia Jersey this week. I really dislike betting on the Texans, but the Titans had their lowest-scoring game since Week 1 last week with 23 points and only produced 194 yards in their Week 9 upset of the . Factor in a trip to New England the following week and this reeks of a weird Texans cover in a sleepwalk/coffin-kick game. The Pick: Titans 17, Texans 14Props, Best Bets: Texans +10.5, over receiving yards if it's le s than 65Sunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ ( ) Latest Odds: Buffalo Bills -7 Fun rematch of last year's playoff game. is playing better than I expected and is on the NFL's version of the Jordan Spieth comeback. If that pathway actually happens, somehow Kyle Porter and I will end up doing a four-part mini-series podcast. is a monster. The first three Colts "picks" of 2020 were , Taylor and . GM Chris Ballard is very good at his job. Unfortunately for the Colts, Buffalo is quite simply the best defense in football this year. It's not being talked about because didn't take an equally exponential leap in 2021 (an impo sible feat), and the Bills have some weird results on their resume.See:I think we just chalk it up to football being weird with this team. The
Tyler Thornburg Jersey Bills flexed back on the Jets last week and this is a bad matchup for the Colts. Buffalo has given up just two 100-yard *team* rushing games this year: one was Derrick Henry, the other was the , which was a "dare you to run" situation. They won't dare Indy to run because Sean McDermott wants Wentz throwing as much as po sible against his defense
Brock Holt Jersey . The Pick: Bills 35, Colts 14Props, Best Bets: Bills -7, over yards 75 or lowerSunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:Fox|Stream:fuboTV ( ) Latest Odds: Cleveland Browns -14 I live in the South and know le s than nothing about Cleveland weather. But this Sunday is setting up as a miserable affair, with a bunch of chilly water falling from the sky and 15 mph winds. It's supposed to be a high of 46 degrees, but if for some reason Mother Nature gets weird, there could be sub-freezing temps and snow, which are coming Monday. Dan Campbell is tough as nails, but is not a cold-weather guy. The Lions stink at stopping the run, and is back and healthy. Plus, can operate this offense just fine if the " " can't play. The Lions will be put into pa s-heavy mode in bad weather with staring down a DPOY trophy. Random but at Caesars. Bet that if you haven't.The Pick: Browns 27, Lions 14Props, Best Bets: NopeSunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ ( ) Latest Odds: New York Jets +4 We betting on or against him? What are the Jets doing?
This is a long-suffering fanbase, and if you give them a sniff of competency, they immediately s
